SPATIAL HOT/COLD SPOLTIV EANALYSIS OF THE OLDER ADULT POPULATION IN PORTLAND, OREGON: PUMA GEOGRAPHY – ACS 2020–2024 5-YEAR ESTIMATES

Paul K. Ayernor (PhD)
Senior Research Associate
NYC-Department of Aging

This paper reports a Getis-Ord Gi* hot/cold spot analysis of older adults across 162 census tracts in Portland, Oregon, using American Community Survey (ACS) 2020–2024 5-year estimates. Two age groups are analyzed separately, ages 55–59 and ages 60 and older, each measured as a share of tract population rather than a raw count. Significance is adjusted for multiple testing with the Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate (FDR).

After adjustment, the 55–59 share shows no significant clustering anywhere in the city. The 60+ share shows six hot-spot tracts and two cold-spot tracts, all at the 90% confidence level. Five of the six hot spots form one contiguous cluster in the southwest of the city; the cold spots include one large tract along the northern edge of the city.

The paper reviews applications of hot spot methods to older-adult populations and services, and Census Bureau practice on small-area geography and margins of error. The results are positioned as a first-stage descriptive input to later accessibility and equity analysis, not as an endpoint.